What have we learned about the macroeconomic
effect of forward guidance?

Online workshop co-funded by the Money, Macro and Finance Society, United Kingdom

9-10 November 2021
University of Oxford


Tuesday, 9 November 2021

10:50 – 11:00        Opening and welcome
Viktor Marinkov (University of Oxford)

11:00 – 11:45        TBA
presenter: Tai Nakata (University of Tokyo)

11:45 - 12:30        The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections
presenter: Joep Lustenhouwer (Heidelberg University)
co-authors: Steffen Ahrens, Michele Tettamanzi

12:30 – 13:45        Lunch Break

13:45 – 14:30        Does real-time macroeconomic information help to predict interest rates?
presenter: Laura Coroneo (University of York)
co-author: Alberto Caruso

14:30 - 15:15        Communication at the Zero Lower Bound: The Case for Forward Guidance
presenter: Viktor Marinkov (University of Oxford)

15:15 – 15:30       Break

15:30 – 16:15       The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks
presenter: Carlos Madeira (Central Bank of Chile)
co-authors: Joao Madeira, Paulo Monteiro

16:15 – 17:00      Household Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance
presenter: Francesco Ferrante (FED Board)
co-author: Matthias Paustian

17:00 – 17:15      Break

17:15 – 18:00      TBA
presenter: Ed Herbst (FED Board)

Wednesday, 10 November 2021 

11:00 - 11:45         The macroeconomic effects of forward communication
                              presenter: Saskia Ter Ellen (Norges Bank)
co-authors: Leif Brubakk, Ørjan Robstad, Hong Xu

11:45 - 12:30       US Monetary Policy at the Height of the Financial Crisis: A
                             Constrained Optimal Policy Projections Perspective
presenter: Oliver de Groot (University of Liverpool & CEPR)
co-authors: Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto, Annukka Ristiniemi

12:30 – 13:45      Lunch Break

13:45 – 14:30      Estimating the Fed’s Unconventional Policy Shocks
presenter: Marek Jarociński (ECB)

14:30 - 15:15        TBA
presenter: Martin Seneca (Bank of England)

15:15 – 15:30        Break

15:30 – 16:15        What are the Macroeconomic Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance (SDFG)?
presenter: Tomasz Wieladek (King’s College London & CEPR)
co-author: Martin Weale

16:15 – 17:00       Learning and Misperception of Makeup Strategies
presenter: Fabian Winkler (FED Board)
co-authors: Martin Bodenstein, James Hebden

17:00 – 17:15       Break

17:15 – 18:00       Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks
                               and their Macroeconomic Effects
presenter: Daniel Lewis (New York FED)


Further details:
• All times are in UK (UTC +0, GMT) time zone.
• Presentations are set to 30-35 minutes, followed by a 10-15 minutes Q&A.
• The workshop will be held on Zoom. A link to the session will be sent to the registered participants in advance of the workshop.

Registration is open. If you would like to attend the workshop, please sign up on the
website. The deadline for registration is 4pm on 8 November 2021